The Zandile Gumede case involves claims of criminality, outright patronage, denials of wrongdoing, and suggestions that the ANC’s disciplinary machinery will now actually work. All of this could have important implications for the party going forward. Not just in KZN, but also in terms of what happens on the national stage in the next few months.
Claims of corruption have been swirling around Gumede for years. The recent arrests of several ANC mayors in KZN in relation to the spate of political killings in the province led to what appears to be informed speculation that she could be arrested in connection with at least one incident. So far, she has not been accused of any violent crime.
On Sunday, KZN ANC leader and premier, Sihle Zikalala, was adamant that ANC deployees in the province who are charged with wrongdoing must step down. He said that if they did not, they would be removed from their positions. His comments appear to be in line with ANC resolutions that those who are formally charged must remove themselves from public positions. This is what happened in Limpopo last year, when several mayors accused of being involved in the VBS scandal had to resign.
The party says it will conduct an investigation to see if Gumede is guilty of wrongdoing, and will then decide her future. All of this may well make sense. But it is unlikely to end well for anyone.
As always in political parties, disciplinary issues are inherently political. Which means that there is likely to be intense contestation over who carries out the investigation. Which group will they come from? Will they support one faction over another?
Then there are the other implications.
It is highly unlikely that the court processes around Gumede will be finished within a month. Which means that the ANC investigation will be completed long before the court process. If the investigation finds Gumede innocent, she will be able to wear the mayoral chain.
If the party’s investigation finds her guilty and the courts find her innocent, not only will it look silly, but she will accuse the disciplinary process of having a political motive.
It would be worse for the party if its investigation finds her innocent and a court finds her guilty. Then the disciplinary machinery will look like it was protecting her. That might be worse for the ANC in terms of its public perception.